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Herman Kahn Quotes


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Herman Kahn
February 15, 1922 - July 7, 1983
Nationality: American
Category: Scientist
Subcategory: American Scientist

A total nuclear freeze is counterproductive - especially now, when technology is rapidly changing and the Soviets have some important strategic advantages.

   

I'm against fashionable thinking.

   

Hopefully, nations will refuse to accept a situation in which nuclear accidents actually do occur, and, if at all possible, they will do something to correct a system which makes them likely.

   

I am against the whole cliche of the moment.

   

In 1960 I published a book that attempted to direct attention to the possibility of a thermonuclear war, to ways of reducing the likelihood of such a war, and to methods for coping with the consequences should war occur despite our efforts to avoid it.

   

A healthy and fully functioning society must allocate its resources among a variety of competing interests, all of which are more or less valid but none of which should take precedence over national security.

   

The objective of nuclear-weapons policy should not be solely to decrease the number of weapons in the world, but to make the world safer - which is not necessarily the same thing.

   

Many people believe that the current system must inevitably end in total annihilation. They reject, sometimes very emotionally, any attempts to analyze this notion.

   

It is immoral from almost any point of view to refuse to defend yourself and others from very grave and terrible threats, even as there are limits to the means that can be used in such defense.

   

The widespread diffusion of nuclear weapons would make many nations able, and in some cases also create the pressure, to aggravate an on-going crisis, or even touch off a war between two other powers for purposes of their own.

   

Failures of perspective in decision-making can be due to aspects of the social utility paradox, but more often result from simple mistakes caused by inadequate thought.

   

Nuclear war is such an emotional subject that many people see the weapons themselves as the common enemy of humanity.

   

I'm against sloppy, emotional thinking.

   

Anything that reduces war-related destruction should not be considered altogether immoral.

   

World War I broke out largely because of an arms race, and World War II because of the lack of an arms race.

   

My guess is that nuclear weapons will be used sometime in the next hundred years, but that their use is much more likely to be small and limited than widespread and unconstrained.

   

For some years I have spent my time on exactly these questions - both in thinking about ways to prevent war, and in thinking about how to fight, survive, and terminate a war, should it occur.

   

A surprising number of government committees will make important decisions on fundamental matters with less attention than each individual would give to buying a suit.

   

Nuclear weapons are intrinsically neither moral nor immoral, though they are more prone to immoral use than most weapons.

   

To the extent that these advanced weapons or their components are treated as articles of commerce, perhaps for peaceful uses as in the Plowshare program, their cost would be well within the resources available to many large private organizations.

   

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